Joe Wikert has an interesting post where he boldly predicts the end of the Kindle hardware by November 2012 -

 In fact, I’ll go so out on a limb and predict that Amazon will completely exit the Kindle hardware space within the next 3 years.

History repeats itself (Tim O’Reilly in Forbes, Feb 23, 2009) -

 Yet I have a bold prediction: Unless Amazon embraces open e-book standards like epub, which allow readers to read books on a variety of devices, the Kindle will be gone within two or three years.

That was exactly 9 months ago. In a remarkable coincidence Joe Wikert works for O’Reilly.

Here’s a bold prediction of my own. In 9 months someone from O’Reilly will make this bold prediction -

Unless Amazon adds a donkey as an official mascot for the Kindle it will die out in 2-3 years.

Why a Bold Prediction of the Kindle’s demise?

Here are Joe Wikert’s reasons (and my counter-arguments) -

Zero Evolution in 2 years.  Counter: Kindle the service has evolved a lot.

Amazon isn’t a hardware vendor. Counter: Lab 126 is. 

Competitors are passing them by. Counter: Yes, totally. Apple Slate which hasn’t even been announced, supposedly Nook which no one has actually used.

Closed Platforms are dead. Counter: Not my area of expertise though given how terribly it has affected Amazon so far you have a point .

Dedicated readers won’t be the answer, not for mass. Counter: No one reads any more so you are right .

Joe Wikert thinks that Amazon is hedging by offering Kindle for iPhone and Kindle for PC. Actually, Amazon is adding to Kindle as a service - these are add-ons and not rival products or hedges.

Joe Wikert’s prediction has little merit – It’s extremely improbable that Amazon will kill the Kindle. 

Amazon is not going to abandon the Kindle

There are lots of reasons why Amazon isn’t going to abandon the Kindle -

Amazon is #1 in an exploding market 

1. The market is supposed to grow to 20-40 million eReaders by 2013. It’s exploding. 
2. Amazon is still #1 – it’s also the only one of the big three wireless ereaders in stock this holiday season. 
3. Kindle 3 ought to be out by February 2010 or soon after. At that point Amazon will probably take back the clear #1 spot.   

Not only is Amazon #1,

1. It has a lot of customers with their entire ebook libraries on the Kindle.
2. Kindle for PC and Kindle for iPhone customers have their entire libraries on the Kindle too.
3. Amazon has the best ebook store and the best ebook prices - the only eReader these work with is the Kindle.

It’s irrational to expect the #1 company in the eReader space to quit it in the next 2-3 years. The #1 spot is critical and even the #2 and #3 spots in the eReader market are worth sticking around for.

Kindle is as good as the Nook

1. The Press and people who have been critical of the Kindle love the Nook. It’s their hedge against the Kindle.  
2. Anyone who has any stake in Publishing loves the Nook because it MIGHT prevent Amazon from dominating Publishing. 
3. Read my Kindle Vs Nook Review - it has all the facts. It’s a tie. A tie that Kindle 3 will possibly break in Kindle’s favor. 

Perhaps most importantly, the Kindle is available while there is a 6+ week wait for the Nook. Only Steve Jobs can make people wait that long.

Kindle the Service has had a lot of evolution

Zero evolution is rather harsh. Amazon is handicapped because of its dependence on eInk.

Since Kindle 1 we’ve had relatively few hardware improvements -

1. Expansion with the larger screen Kindle DX with accelerometer. 
2. Better Screen Resolution. 
3. Lower Price i.e. $259 instead of $399.
4. Faster Page Refreshes.  
5. Thinner device.

That’s not as much as needed. However, consider Kindle as a service and there are lots of additions -

1. Text to Speech.
2. Kindle for iPhone.
3. Kindle for PC.
4. Syncing across all reading devices.
5. Expansion to 174 countries.
6. International WhisperNet (81 countries).  
7. International Wikipedia.  
8. Number of books has nearly doubled.

These are also future additions that have been announced -

1. Free International Browsing. 
2. Kindle for Mac.  
3. Folders.

Plus, in 2010 you get a lot of advancements – SiPix and eInk are promising color, PixelQi is looming, and so are Mirasol displays.

Amazon will finally be free to make significant hardware upgrades by end 2010/early 2011.

Amazon has shown a ton of committment to the Kindle

1. They have a subsidiary, Lab 126, that designs Kindles and other hardware products.
2. Lab 126 has put up 19 job openings in just the last week.
3. Lab 126 have hired hardware talent from Apple, Palm, etc. and design talent from Frog Design, etc.
4. Mr. Bezos has said that Amazon intend to have a Kindle 10 - that’s a pretty bold statement. 
5. Amazon has filed for patents for a Kindle electronic pen and for advertisements in books.

Amazon have between 1-3 million Kindle owners. Most of whom are bibliophiles and spending a lot on ebooks. Maintaining these lucrative customers and adding more makes a ton of sense.

Amazon are very committed – The first 2 items in their earnings report discussed the success of the Kindle. Not the actions of the company that planned to kill the Kindle in 3 years.

Is it true that dedicated eReaders won’t be the answer?

There are only two ways to answer Joe Wikert’s assumption that multi-purpose devices will win -

1. You’re right. Since you can’t imagine anyone in their right mind buying a $259 eReader, that does nothing except reading, the Kindle is bound to fail.  
2. You’re right. The masses won’t read. We’ll be left with nothing except the people who generate $25 billion dollars a year of revenue from books (just in the US), and the people who generate tens of billions of dollars of revenue from newspapers (again, just in the US).

Obviously, Amazon are crazy to be catering to these narrow segments that only account for $50 billion a year in revenue in the US. They should aim for the people who want a multi-purpose device because they hardly ever read and account for less than 5% of this $50 billion dollar revenue stream.  

eReaders are replacing paper, and all types of reading.

It’s not that the scope of eReaders is too small and they can’t counter Apple’s multi-purpose Slate.

It’s that the scope of eReaders is so big that they will replace paper. They are not meant to compete with Apple or for that matter with any other electronic device.

Take all your reading and writing i.e.

1. Blogs.
2. Websites.
3. Books.
4. Work.
5. Work documents.
6. Journals.
7. School work.

And everything that you read and write and is a page or more.

That is what eReaders are replacing. Think Paper Vs Kindle and you’ll understand why Amazon is making the moves it is.  

Mr. Bezos and Amazon are not going to sacrifice a 300 to 350 million units a year market. Even 20% of that market is worth fighting to the death for.

Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)

• International Amazon Kindle Release Marketing
• Kindle – 5 Free Books, 1 Bargain
• Kindle International Release Date – why Amazon rushed it
• The Trouble with Amazon

Filed under: evolution | Tagged: future of epaper, kindle vs nook

We explained that you don't need to pay for Windows security last week, but today we're taking a closer look at how to protect yourself from drive-by malware that can infect your computer by simply visiting the wrong web site.

Naturally, everything in the last article still applies (you should definitely give it a read through if you haven't already). Most importantly, make sure you always keep your PC updated; it's the biggest key to protecting yourself against drive-by malware. If you're already good on that front, here are some of the finer adjustments you can make to keep yourself safe.

What Is Drive-By Malware?

Drive-by malware infects your computer by exploiting a vulnerability in your browser, browser plug-ins, or by opening a file in a hidden frame and exploiting a security hole in an application, like Adobe Reader. Think you only browse safe sites? They've also been known to hijack advertisements on popular sites. We'll take a quick tour through some of the best ways to protect yourself.

Readers should note that we're assuming you're already using an antivirus application—if you aren't, check out the five most popular antivirus applications among Lifehacker readers.

Disable, Kill, or Uninstall Adobe Reader

Adobe Reader is a security hole waiting to happen. Even if you try your best to keep the software updated, you're still at risk for the latest vulnerabilities if you allow it to open PDFs in your web browser. Your best bet is to get rid of Adobe Reader entirely and switch to a better alternative, but if you prefer Reader you should force Firefox to download all PDF files and open them separately (i.e., outside your browser). Head into the Preferences and find Internet on the left-hand menu, then uncheck the "Display PDF in browser" option on the right. This should prevent Reader from automatically opening in the browser without your consent.

Next you'll need to head into Firefox Options -> Applications, and look for the PDF file item in the list—if it doesn't exist, that's fine. If it does, change the value to Always ask or Save File instead.
If you're using Internet Explorer, you might want to head into Tools -> Manage Addons and disable the Adobe PDF Link helper as well.

FlashBlock Disables Annoying Animations, Protects You

Not only does the excellent FlashBlock extension help get rid of the web's biggest annoyances, but it also prevents you from being immediately vulnerable to the many security holes repeatedly found in Adobe Flash. In my experience, this extension helps Firefox run more smoothly and take longer before it reaches the "reboot needed" point—it's a must-have. Google Chrome users can also block Flash with a user script, and IE users can use Toggle Flash to turn the extension on or off.

Disable ALL Unnecessary Plug-ins

On my Firefox installation, the only plug-in that I have enabled is Adobe Flash, and I'm using Flashblock to make sure that it only runs when I tell it to. Why? The vast majority of the web sites that I visit use Flash, but very few of them use Java, Silverlight, and none of them need the .NET Framework Assistant—there's no reason to keep all of these plug-ins enabled when what we really want is a nice trim Firefox install. Just head into Tools -> Add-ons, head to the Plugins tab, and start disabling everything else that you don't use.
If you are using Internet Explorer instead, you can open up Tools -> Manage Add-ons and start disabling toolbars and plugins that you really don't need running.
Just make sure to change the Show drop-down to "Add add-ons" so you can see everything that is enabled, rather than just the add-ons that are currently loaded. This will let you find a lot of extra stuff that you didn't realize was there.

Keep Your System Updated

We already mentioned in our last rant on keeping your system secure, but we're going to tell you again: Keeping your system updated is the most important factor in protecting yourself against drive-by malware that exploits unpatched security holes. Make sure to use Windows Update to keep your base system patched, and then use one of the best software update tools to make sure that your applications are also updated.

Serious Security: Use a Virtual Machine

If you spend a lot of time browsing questionable web sites and downloading files on P2P networks, you should consider using a virtual machine like VirtualBox to do your dirty work in. If your virtual machine goes up in smoke, your primary PC will stay nice and safe. This is also a great way to test out software that you really aren't sure about, and it's the way that we do our testing over at How-To Geek HQ for applications we're writing about. If a virtual machine isn't your style, you can also virtualize just your applications and safely test new software with an application like Sandboxie, which will run your applications in a "sandbox" to protect the rest of your PC from a questionable application.

How do you protect yourself from drive-by malware attacks and keep your system secure? Share your methods in the comments.

The How-To Geek loves some Flashblock with his Firefox. His geeky articles can be found daily here on Lifehacker, How-To Geek, and Twitter.

Send an email to How-To Geek, the author of this post, at lowell@lifehacker.com.

CLIPPERS

Ralph Lawler and Michael Smith suspended for comments

Clippers announcers were pulled from Friday night's broadcast after on-air exchange about Memphis' Hamed Haddadi.

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Broadcasters Ralph Lawler, left, and Mike Smith do a pregame segment before a Clippers-Grizzlies game. (Joe Murphy / NBAE / Getty Images / December 9, 2006)

Related

Ralph Lawler, Mike Smith

Clippers' Dunleavy defends himself amid speculation about his job security

Clippers revert to (bad) form

By Diane Pucin

November 21, 2009

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Ralph Lawler hadn't missed a Clippers broadcast in 25 years. Not for a cold or flu or even a kidney stone attack. He's been at the microphone for every dreary Clippers loss and the occasional uplifting victory.

Until Friday night.

Fox yanked Lawler and analyst Michael Smith from Friday's Prime Ticket broadcast of the game against the Denver Nuggets after Clippers season-ticket holder Arya Towfighi objected to an on-air exchange between the announcers toward the end of Wednesday's 106-91 Clippers loss at Memphis.

A source with knowledge of Fox's decision but who was not authorized to speak publicly said Lawler and Smith had "been suspended." They are expected to be back on the air for Monday's game against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Lawler and Smith, who have been an on-air team for eight years, had a 40-second exchange about Grizzlies 7-foot-2 center Hamed Haddadi, who is the first Iranian citizen to play in the NBA.

The dialogue included several instances in which Smith and Lawler pronounced Iran as "Eye-ran," and included the comparison of Haddadi to the fictional character Borat, the creation of comic Sacha Baron Cohen. Borat is a clueless, sexist, racist man -- and from Kazakhstan, not Iran.

Reached after a meeting with Fox officials Friday, Lawler said, "I'm really sorry with the decision. I deeply regret that anything we said offended even one good Clipper fan or anyone else. I am not a bigot."

Smith, in an e-mail Friday night, would only say, "Ralph is an incredible broadcaster, an amazing colleague and a wonderful friend."

The Clippers did not respond to voice mail or e-mail messages asking about Fox's decision.

The Wednesday exchange began when Haddadi entered the game and Smith said, "Look who's in." Lawler responded, "Hamed Haddadi. Where's he from?"

Smith answered, "He's the first Iranian to play in the NBA."

Towfighi, in an e-mail to The Times, the Clippers and Fox Sports executives, took umbrage with the fact that Smith mispronounced Iran and Iranian.

Here is the rest of the on-air exchange:

Lawler: "There aren't any Iranian players in the NBA?" repeating Smith's pronunciation of the word "Iranian."

Smith: "He's the only one."

Lawler: "He's from Iran?"

Smith: "I guess so."

Lawler: "That Iran?"

Smith: "Yes."

Lawler: "The real Iran?"

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Copyright © 2009, The Los Angeles Times

Related stories

From the L.A. Times

• Lawler, Smith suspended for tonight’s Clippers telecast

From other L.A. sources

• Clippers broadcasters suspended for remarks about Iranian player|dailynews.com
• Clips’ announcers suspended for remarks|abclocal.go.com

Around the Web

• Clips’ Broadcasters Suspended For Borat Remarks|huffingtonpost.com

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Porn star Penny Flame is now Jennie Ketcham, a transition she's documenting:

Recently, Penny Flame, a well-known adult film star, quit porn to pursue an art career. She also writes a blog, Becoming Jennie, about her transition to a new life - with what SFGate's Violet Blue calls "a sex-positive stance on porn, women and self-defined sexuality. And most of all, a cool attitude of sexual responsibility." In this she's distinct from other ex-porn stars who, Ketcham feels, perpetuate the stereotypes and either present themselves as victims of the industry or still want to profit from being sex symbols. As she writes,

I hate the common exit strategy, hate that girls join the 'god squad' or feel ashamed of the choices they made but I understand it. I can see that it's much easier to say 'porn did this to me, or that' but at the end of the day, we are all responsible for the choices we make. I chose to be a porn star. Now I'm choosing not to be. It's the beautifully terrible thing about free will: we can do whatever we like but we must be held accountable for whatever we do. Just because I don't want to be a porn star today doesn't mean that I should feel ashamed to have been one seven months ago. It's something I did and I'm not afraid to say I did it, loved doing it, and just don't feel like it's what I need to do anymore. Shame and guilt are useless emotions. The only way I would feel ashamed is if I'd decided being a porn star isn't what's best for me and then continued doing it anyway.

To some ears, this may seem like a simplified - if pragmatic - attitude towards something that can't be separated from its moral and social implications. And there's an understandable ambivalence to some of Ketcham's writings. She feel she had become a

woman that exists for the sole purpose of others' enjoyment. I realized I have no identity as Jennie Ketcham and that I am incapable of developing sincere and intimate relationships. I don't blame this problem on being in pornography, it was something I've struggled with for a long time, but to continue as an adult performer would just perpetuate the issues. I quit because I wanted an identity outside of being a porn star. I wanted to be Jennie again.

Ketcham's point is well-taken, and her insistence on personal accountability is laudable. She's right that porn did not "cause" her issues. As she says, "the notion that my worth revolves around my sexuality is something I struggle with on a daily basis... In fact, that's a big reason of why I entered adult in the first place." And it's much healthier to say that she's proud of her career, that "I wouldn't be in the wonderful place I am today if it were not for where I'd been as a porn star, and Penny Flame" than to draw a curtain of shame over a significant portion of her life.

But, as a public voice - which is what she's becoming, in a new book as well as the blog - Ketcham's feels, in some ways, more conflicted than "porn-positive." She did a wide range of work - some woman-positive, but much of it of the sort Ariel Levy, for one, would condemn as harmful. As such, there's no reason her attitude should be doctrinaire, either; she had a good experience but the industry is not monolithic. Ketcham has a chance to say something important - and getting out of the industry, with sex-positive feelings of self-worth in tact, is already saying a lot - and we'll be reading.

Leaving Porn On Her Terms [SFGate]
Becoming Jennie

Send an email to Sadie Stein, the author of this post, at Sadie@jezebel.com.

By Laura Northrup, 5:44 PM on Fri Nov 20 2009, 1,316 views

After Consumerist first alerted the nation to the debilitating waffle shortage, the story has been making the rounds of nearly every media outlet in the country. Thanks to their hard work, we've learned some interesting new things about the shortage.

ABC News learned that while flood damage was the real reason for the extended closing of the waffle factory, the plant was originally shut down due to listeria contamination. It was while the plant was already closed for cleanup that the fateful flooding occurred.

"Kellogg voluntarily ceased production at the plant, began an investigation to determine a possible cause of contamination and began a regimen of cleaning and sanitizing," the Georgia Department of Agriculture announced at the time. "Kellogg will execute its hygienic restoration plan under GDA before it resumes production at the plant."

Kellogg spokeswoman Kris Charles said the plant was closed for both cleaning and as a result of the flooding.

"Just as the Atlanta facility was ready to resume production, excessive rain in the region caused flooding at the facility, which delayed the startup," Charles wrote in an e-mail to ABC News today.

Stephen Colbert even called upon President Obama to open up the country's Strategic Waffle Reserve. Check out the great mashup of H1N1 vaccine story footage and the waffle story.

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Eggo Waffles Shortage Alert
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor U.S. Speedskating

Eggo Waffle Shortage: Bacteria First Forced Plant Closure [ABC News]
November 18, 2009: Eggo Waffles Shortage Alert [The Colbert Report]

PREVIOUSLY:
Hey, Where Did All The Eggo Waffles Go?
Kellogg's Finally Explains Eggo Waffle Shortage